Day Trading Result (simulated)

USD JPY

Buy (20/12) @ 112.875

TP - 113.25
SL - 112.50

Result - on going (profit 30 + pips)

GBP USD

Buy (19/12) @ 1.33797

TP - 1.3425
SL - 1.3350

Result = SL (loss of 29.7)

Buy (20/12) @ 1.33814

TP - 1.3425
SL - 1.3350

Result - on going (profit 10+ pips)

USD CHF

Sell (19/12) @ 0.98542

TP - 0.9825
SL - 0.9900

Result - on going (loss 5 pips)

EUR USD

Buy 19/12 @ 1.17805

TP - 1.1825
SL - 1.1750

Result - profit of 45 pips close

AUD USD

Buy 14/12 @ 0.76358

TP - 0.7675
SL - 0.7600

Result - profit of 40 pips closed

EUR GBP

Buy 18/12 @ 0.88145

TP - 0.8875
SL - 0.8750

Result - on going (profit 40 + pips)

EUR AUD

Buy 20/12 @ 1.54429
TP - 1.5475
SL - 1.5400

Result - on going (profit +5 pips)

EUR CHF

Buy 20/12 @ 1.16598
TP - 1.1675
SL - 1.1600

Result - profit of 15 pips

EUR JPY

Buy 20/12 @ 133.627
TP - 134.25
SL - 133.50

Result - on going (profit of 30+ pips)

GBP JPY

Buy 19/12 @ 150.532
TP - 150.75
SL - 150.00

Result - closed profit of 22 pips

AUD CAD

Buy 14/12 @ 0.97836
TP - 0.9825
SL - 0.9750

Result - closed profit of 40 pips

AUD JPY

Buy 20/12 @ 86.471
TP - 86.75
SL - 86.00

Result - closed profit of 20 pips

CHF JPY

Buy 18/12 @ 113.756
TP - 114.25
SL - 113.50

Result - SL of 25 pips

EUR NZD

Buy 19/12 @ 1.68299
TP 1.6875
SL 1.6800

Result - closed profit of 40 pips

EUR CAD

Buy 19/12 @ 1.51475
TP 1.5175
SL 1.5100

Result - closed profit of 25 pips

EUR AUD

EUR AUD

Monthly

Q3 - price try to break below the HQV OSUS on July 2017 but it failed with the price closing above 1.4750 thus hinting a momentum bullish for the next 2 months period for a break out above 1.5250

Q4 - as of this month - the price presently has touch 1.5225 - 1.5250 price level with the next move either break or reject for a next play towards 1.4750 or above 1.5250 - 1.5750.

AUD USD

AUD USD

Monthly

Q3 - price has break out from the HQV OSUS of 0.7750 - 0.7250 and above the 0.7750 as of July 2017 with it`s target is towards 0.8750 if break 0.8250.

However, price remain fail to break or reach 0.8250 whereby the highest it could achieve by end of Q3 by September 2017 was at 0.8125, thus that signalling a failure to stay above the 0.7750 - 0.8250.

Q4- as it suggested by previous price move, bearish trend was on the move from 0.8125 towards 0.7750 and below. And as of now, it would seem that price will be back onto the OSUS zone by October closing

IF you were to sell anywhere from 0.8000 and above, you may hold the sell setup towards 0.7775 - 0.7525 - 0.7275 until a next move potentially either it will reject or break below 0.7725.

If price chose to reject the 0.7725 - 0.7775 with a bullish momentum / October closes above it - then the buy option remain open.

Quotes from successful traders

I usually risk more than the traditional 2% risk management. Say 10% or more, depending on the market conditions, every trade is always different. If it’s worth to risk big, I’ll go for it. If it’s not that convincing, I will not place any trade until I am deadly sure.

Scalper, slowly turn into a swing trader as I progress into a more matured trader year by year. I do trade oil n some us stocks as well in the background but my accuracy is more on gold. Not into trading the currency pairs much.

Snr n trendline zones. It can be either retracement or reversal orders.

Prepare all the possibilities first before you place your trade. Market is always bitchy. You can always control your risk n that is the main priority in handling your emotions. Anything else is simply beyond your control

It’s always snr n trendline in between high timeframes. Timeframe is a powerful thing if you understand it well. The clashing between these three is the strong confluences I will always look up to before placing my orders. Everyone’s idea of these group is different so it works differently for everybody. Mine just happen to be just a bit different from the formal ways.

I’d prepare in mind atleast 3-4 ideas of “what if price does this and that” and “what I am going to do”. Reason? So I am mentally prepared for anything weird lols The key to staying calm all the time, no emotional or revenge trading. That is the trading plan that works for me, atleast.

To be honest, I don’t really sleep during my early years of trading, woke up at 5am go to bed at 4am every single day. Today roughly, less than 2 minutes. I rarely look at the chart nowadays lols!

Above four years to really tackle the market in a right way. Learning is never easy, first year was full of cursings. Second year was hell, it’s just hard to get the right move! Gosh! Third year, things starting to make sense n promising but don’t be fooled by that lols! I’d say 4 years is good benchmark to get your trading edge IF you dare to fail n work hard enough.

Depending on my analysis n the trading plan, if the pre-claimed trade-target is located thousand pips away. I will compound more and put more orders. Never let a serious opportunity go to waste when you know what to do n when you have the power to do so.

Well earlier, for me I don’t even have any clue on that to be honest. I know it makes sense to me and easy to learn. If I think the method is weak in picking up strong retracements area for example. I’d spend the the whole day researching n read just on the retracements part only. then apply those readings in real trading, lots of win n fail moment in between attempt. And the cycle repeats for years.

Technical of course. Snr, trendline and correct timeframe usage.

Actually, I don’t see any point of giving too much attentions about other traders. You have your opinion, they have theirs. Most of the time, I mind my own business n work on myself a lot. Yes I take a look of their trades, profits, market view and everything but I’m not affected by anyone’s opinion at all to even follow what they’re saying. So it’s always about being your best self n make the best bet out there for yourself. If you care much about their view, chances that you’re putting your account at risk.

 I have four of them. Depending on the leverage of each account, I don’t really have a specific amount for that because different trade gives u different thrill n risk tolerence. I’d say the amount I’m comfortable n willing to lose in one trade it’s usually around 120K pound.

Youtube tutorials, random trading sites with the webminar, online courses and the mentorship course. I never purchase any book at all lols! Cuz I can find them on the net. All these are useless if you’re too scared to lose your money. Try n fail, feel the pain. They’re your best teacher.

Knowledge will help you with the technical parts. Experience act as your instinct when you’re running your trades. Why are you still holding your trades when market already hint you an early reversal n they’re ready to forget your TP. You gotta have them both balanced that’s it.

God I have no idea at all lols! Deep down something inside me is telling me it’s possible and it can be done. I just need to execute the right trades and repeat them, and it’s just a matter of time.

Just like everyone else, I’ve been there too. The key is to keep that faith and tell yourself I need to this, I have to do it, IT HAS TO HAPPEN! Take a step back from the chart, leave them for a day or two don’t look at them. Reflect on what went wrong with YOU first then dive into the chart back to find your mistakes. In the mean time, keep searching for the positive motivations. It can be anything, mine used to be staring at my favorite supercars or listen to youtube’s inspirational quotes. You just have to find your own way to get the confidence n it starts with finding ‘what motivates you’ in the first place and remember why you started. All the best to you!

The market movement is not something we can’t control, keep in mind. It start with controlling your risk which is our position size, that’s the only thing we can control. If you risk too much, a slight movement would of course shake your mental emotions n your initial trading plan. Keep your lot low at the optimum level to cope with the pressure during your trading.

Daily n above for the trade destination. H4 and below for entry precision n confirmations.

No regrets, it’s part of the game. I know what I’m dealing with when i first stepped into the game. During my losing period, I stay away from the chart. Go back to chart when my emotion is finally stable. motivation kicks in, and I’m all set n ready to start all over again.

Snr on big timeframe is more reliable to use than the one in H1, I never bother about what’s happening in H1 until I am ready to place my entry, then only I’ll go into H1/H4 to find the price setup. Both H1/H4 will provide me some infomations about the price whether it’s ready to reverse or continue around or towards the big tf’s snr zones.

Each traders has their own ways of indicating a reversal. Mine will always be in H1/H4 and if market hints a reversal and if it’s happen to clash with the big-tf, that’s already a good indicator that the trend is about to end.

I’d measure my entry n target zones on the big-tf. Scale down to H4/H1 for my price entry. Anything that occur in between is not for me to interrupt the trade. The trade either hit my stops or my target. That’s how I run n respect my trading plan. Know what you can and can’t control.

August 2017

Aud Chf

Price potentially opened below 0.7750 thus ranging within the OSUS zone.
Bearish mode towards 0.7250

Cad Chf

Price potentially opened below 0.7750 thus ranging within the OSUS zone
Bearish mode towards 0.7250

Eur Aud

Price potentially opened above 1.4750 thus ranging within the OSUS zone.
Bullish mode towards 1.5250

Eur Cad

Price potentially opened above 1.4750 thus ranging within the OSUS zone
Bullish mode towards 1.5250

Eur Chf

Price potentially opened above 1.1250 thus bullish mode towards 1.1750 - 1.2250.

Eur Usd

Price potentially opened above 1.1750 thus bullish mode towards 1.2250

Gbp Chf

Price potentially opened below 1.2750 thus ranging within the OSUS zone.
Bearish mode towards 1.2250.

Nzd Chf

Price potentially opened below 0.7250 thus bearish mode towards 0.6750

Eur Nzd

Price potentially opened above 1.5750 thus bullish mode towards 1.6250.



*** subject to changes based on August open monthly 1/8/17

Mugetsu Trading Style

I have thus far "achieved" better results todate with the present method of trading mode that i have been using with lots of improvisation and changes.

The SS indicates that i`ve started the trading with USD10K deposit and from the a result with profits all the way, except for a certain unfortunate SL due to i forget to delete the SL huhu.

As todate, from USD10K - i have grow up to USD25K with a 150% growth percentage with a floating which is roughly around 3%.

With proper entry size and discipline with the trading method, i hope to gain up towards 100k.

In terms of period, starting was from 16th June which is around 1 months plus for a 150% growth.

This will be updated on a weekly basis

GOLD Update

GOLD

Price has achieved LL as of 1214.05 and now on bullish momentum towards previous high of 1292.09

AU Update

AU

Price has achieved LL as of 0.73281 and in the midst of bullish momentum towards previous HH of 0.75553

GJ Update

GJ

Price has achieved HH at 148.095 and in the midst of bearish momentum towards previous LL of 135.583

UJ update

UJ

Price has created a new HH at 114.361 and now in the midst of bearish momentum towards the previous LL of 108.123.

EJ Update

EJ has achieved a HH at 125.805 and now presently on the bearish momentum mode.
Price may look for the previous LL of 114.840 or around the area of 118.25.

EU update

Eu has made the new LL as of last week at 1.08384 and now on the verge of hunting for a new HH with the nearest target at 1.12988.

As long as there are no sign of TRW, thus bullish remain.

In terms of weekly range, price has achieved 100 pips thus far with a potential of another 100 pips to go.

EU Week 3

EU

My initial target remain bearish towards 1.0750 with the potential achievement by this week.
However IF the price break above 1.1025 , then i`ll opt for bullish towards 1.1250 instead.

Let us see where it`ll goes this week then

Notes

1) If price break below 1.0750 by end of Q2, towards parity potentially on Q3.
2) If price reject above 1.0750 by end of Q2, towards 1.1250 potentially on Q3

Uber-ing Monday

My first day driving uber as part of "freeing" my time and earning extra income besides trading.

19 trip within 9 hours with a total earning of 111.47 which is an average of 1 trip per 2.1 hours , 5.86 average per 1 trip.

Quarterly against daily

GJ

Looking at the Q2 trend, it's projected to be "bullish" from the lower price of 135 - 136 towards the high above the Q1 high or simply said Q4 2016 high.

Yesterday the daily price initially opened above 147.75 before it closed by end of day below 147.00

In terms of daily SOP, if the price closes below the OSUS HQV (though not yet on monthly basis) - it`s a sign of reversal towards the previous / present lowest low i.e Q2 of 135.583 or towards 127.50

Q1 high was at 145.383 which was broken with the highest for this month as at 148.095.

Should i act to sell instead OR should i wait for the monthly closing to decide?

If i were to follow the quarterly rules - there`s still another full one month (June) to go with the prospect of UK election which "may" push the GBP much higher to where it stands as of now - back to the price before brexit.

1) Technically, price open below the OSUS HQV (though it opened within the OSUS HQV initially). So, potentially conflicts?

2) It would be best to see whether the price are going to break below 145.25 - 144.75 or were to remain above it for next week.

3) If it does break, then we could be certain that it`ll look for 142.50 and below. If it does not, then our position remains.

Focus on "selected" pairs

I think it would be best for me to only focus on certain selected pairs, rather than having too much pair but at no "relevant" directions.

Thus i may stick to the original plan but "strongly" focus on the "U-HQV" zone price

AU
EU
EJ
GU
GJ
UCAD
UJ

GOLD

This would be on the "main account" while the secondary remain as it is.

5 elemen utama

Trading Plan

1. GOAL (Matlamat)

Jangkamasa pendek
- berjaya gain di antara 250 pips ke atas seminggu (50 sehari)

Jangkamasa panjang
- berjaya menjadi seorang trader yang konsisten walaupun ianya bukanlah mudah tetapi tidak mustahil.

2. Market

Pasaran market

AU
EU
EJ
GU
GJ
UCAD
GOLD

Saya sebagai "swing" trader , analisa adalah pada awal pagi selepas OD yang baru.

3. Preparation

Preparation adalah secara teknikal mengikut pada sistem trading tersendiri, secara naked chart dan melihat di mana price level sedia ada. Saya tak fokus pada fundamental tetapi adakalanya akan mengambil info terutamanya yang berkaitan dengan news besar (election / politikal / etc)

4. Timeframe

Saya akan melihat pada higher timeframe, yakni D1 ke atas. Entry adalah berdasarkan pada OD timeframe D1.

5. Strategy

Saya akan melihat berdasarkan pada past performances mengikut pada price level sedia ada untuk melihat sejauh keberkesanan mengikut pada perancangan yang ada. Dan ini juga termasuk dengan penggunaan SL (jika ada) namun kebiasaannya adalah cara "cut loss" sahaja.

100 pips a day

Risk Reward 1:2

SL :50
TP :100

Entry based pada OD di mana terletaknya price (luar / dalam OSUS SQV)

Trade hanya based pada pair yang OD seperti di atas.

Jika price pada haritu closing tanpa hit either SL / TP dan di mana ianya floating positif, set BE+ or close terus. Jika sebaliknya floating negatif, maka close as cut loss

Jika 5 pair entry trade at 100 pips

Dengan kiraan (100%) 2 win 3 loss

- win @ 200 pips
- loss @ 150 pips

Overall win @ 50 pips in total.

If 50 pips a day * 5 days = 250 pips a week
If 250 pips a week * 4 weeks = 1000 pips a month

if

0.01 * 1000 pips =  10 usd  (100 usd 5deci)
0.10 * 1000 pips = 100 usd (1000 usd 5deci)
1.00 * 1000 pips = 1000 usd (10,000usd 5 deci)

GBP CHF

GBP CHF

Dari segi "trend", price was bearish dari 2.25 hingga ke arah 1.25.
Kini samada ianya akan reversal atau break through, next week akan diketahui.

Amnya, price kini dalam OSUS SQV. Let us see tomorrow

GBP CAD

GBP CAD

Dari segi "trend" major masih bearish ke arah 1.25

Kini, price dah memasuki semula OSUS HQV dan setup untuk esok adalah bergantung samada price berjaya break in or reject.

EU SGD

Price amnya dalam bearish mode ke arah 1.2500

Dari segi OSUS HQV - price mungkin akan retest semula 1.5225 - 1.5250.

Mencari setup re-entry sell.

EA CAD

EA CAD

Price amnya dalam zon U-HQV 1.25 dan 1.75. Price dah reject 1.25 dan on the way ke arah 1.75 semula.

Dari segi HQV, price dah berada hampir di 1.4750.
Bergantung pada keadaan, entry setup by esok samada sell or buy.

CAD CHF

CAD CHF

Price berada di dalam OSUS HQV dan secara "amnya" berada di bawah 0.7500.

Dari segi trend, price dah "complete" U-HQV movement dari 1.25 ke 0.75. Now for the next movement, adakah price akan return ke arah 1.25 or sambung bearish ke arah 0.25

In the interim, just wait for the price to reach 0.7275 sahaja.

AUD CHF

AUD CHF

Price dalam OSUS HQV. Dan sudah berada di dalam zon tersebut for a while.
Dari segi major trend, price dalam mode "bearish"

AUD CAD

AUD CAD

Menunggu daily untuk reject or break OSUS for entry setup minggu ini.
Dari segi major trend, "bullish"

USD MXN

USD MXN

U-HQV : Di antara 17.50 dan 22.50

HQV : Di antara 18.75 dan 18.25

Notes:

Price break in 17.50 from 12.50 dan cuba menuju ke 22.50 namun hanya mampu retest 21.75 sebelum reversal. 

Price akan cuba re-test semula 17.50 JIKA break 18.25 namun besar kemungkinan price akan sambung bullish untuk close gap dan akan menuju ke arah 19.25 and above.

USD ZAR

USDZAR

U-HQV
- price di antara 12.50 dan 17.50
- price reject 12.50 pada March 2017 dan kini dalam perjalanan semula ke 17.50.

HQV
- price di antara 13.25 dan 12.75
- price break in 13.25 khamis lepas dan dalam perjalanan ke arah 12.75.

Setup
- menunggu re-entry buy sama ada di 12.75 atau di atas 13.25.
- target TP ke arah HQV terdekat 13.75 / U-HQV di 17.50.

Bad week

Minggu ni is not a very positive outcome. But from there, another new things yang boleh dipelajari

AJ

AJ

12/10 - OD was below the OSUS zone, thus a potential bearish entry.

However the 13/10 momentum bullish instead and the candle / trend more likely as a bullish engulfing which 14/10 to be bull as well.

But the OD was within the OSUS zone though and i chose to wait and see for a clearer point.

GU

GU

Price was bearish yesterday after a 3 days bullish momentum from 1.2375 onwards.
The bearish candle break onto the OSUS zone and close within it.

Given the senario, i short with both TP at the OSUS zone (both SQV and HQV) with the latter on monitoring purposes.

There`s a possibility that the setup may fail instead, thus a SL set between 1.2525 - 1.2550

AU

AU

Yesterday or 2 days before was a bullish momentum which prior to that was consolidating within the SQV OSUS zone.

The bull moves strongly yesterday with the highest however was rejected by the LHZ level.

If based on my present trade method, i will simply focus on bull momentum towards the 0.7725 price level since OD today is above the OSUS.

But if i were to based on LHZ rejection, then it would seem a potential bearish move towards the OSUS zone.

However if i were to sell, i would do so WHEN a Trigger Reversal Wave occurs whereby a bearish candle available for a follow through.

Let us see then either

1) bullish according to my present "trade method"
2) bearish due to rejection at the LHZ.

Week

This week is not a good week yet and my present trades are simply afloat but towards my preset destination.

I`m thinking of adding another account for intraday trade based on the 25-75 key levels only.

Swing

Presently i`m more focused onto swing / position method as compare to my former preferences.

If you could trade with less stress and getting roughly around 5000.0 pips (50,000 points) in a year for a SINGLE pair only - what`s more if you could trade more than 4 pairs?

Risk

Most successful market professionals achieve success by controlling risk. 

Most successful speculators have success rate of 35 to 50 percent. They are succesful because the size of their profitable trades far exceeds the size of their losses.

Most successful conservative investors are contrarians. They have patience and are willing to wait for the right opportunity.

notes

Kita perlu ada "kelebihan" di mana ianya merupakan jangkaan positif apabila melakukan perkara yang sama, semestinya akan terjana 'profit"

Jangkaan = (kebarangkalian menang * purata kemenangan) - (kebarangkalian kalah * purata kekalahan)

Update

EU breakout as per what i "feared".This is due that it may affect the Q2 momentum.

Gu and Gold bullish due to the OSUS zone senario - this i overlook again.

EJ and GJ - stubborn?

Uj - bull?

Au remain on track

Ucad / Uschf and Nu - waiting for the next setup.

Update

This week is a bit slow with most major pair that i traded are within consolidation mode before the next breakout move

Eu remain indecisive with a possibility of things going against what i expected, though i believe it will not.

The rest remain in line, just waiting for the right time and moment.

QTTW - The Conclusive Wave

Conclusive wave adalah ibarat wave 5 Elliot Wave dan boleh menjadi wave yang ideal di dalam QTTW.

Nama conclusive wave menggambarkan wave yang boleh menghasilkan pergerakan harga yang terhad dan mungkin lebih rendah dari yang lain.

Conclusive wave perlu dihampiri dengan penuh berhati-hati, bukan sahaja sebab ianya merupakan peringkat terakhir sesuatu sequence trend wave, tetapi kerana ianya boleh mengakibatkan kebarangkalian yang tinggi untuk gagal.

Akibat kegagalannya dalam kebanyakkan keadaan akan memulakan Reversal trigger wave. Bermulanya RTW maka berakhirnya CW.

Update

This week progessively balanced , though they are some mistakes made but entirely overall is good.
I may opt for changes in terms of entry base to "Shunpo" style.

UJ

Cycle completed. Now looking for a potential long by this monday - depends on the weekly opening.

Gold

If price remain as it is on the weekly opening, i`ll opt for buy.

UPdates - Wednesday

EJ

Price has move downward with the OD today below the 122.25 price level.
Look forward for a further bearish move towards 117.50 by Q2 at least with 120.25 - 119.75 by this week

Gold

Price fail to break above 1207.50 yesterday despite OD twice above 1202.50.
As today OD below 1200, i`ll opt out and awaits for tomorrow. Never the less my previous entry of sell from 1218 remain running in profit towards targeted area of 1175 - 1125 long term.

GJ

Price made a bearish move yesterday towards 139.145 and OD today below 139.75.
Looking for a long term bear towards 137.5 - 127.50

UCAD

Price has made it`s move toward the OSUS zone despite the OW below 1.3475.
My sell setup remain on hold unless the OD tomorrow is above 1.3525.
Never the less the long term trend remain towards 1.375 - 1.475.

UJ

Price OD below 114.75 today , and i look forward for a further move below towards 113.75.
If any changes occurs with the OD above 115.25 tomorrow, then i may the sell instead.

EA

Price OD above 1.40294  after rejected by 1.4025 price level yesterday (low at 1.40158), and i look for a bullish rally towards 1.4225 - 1.4250.

EG

Price OD below 0.8725 this morning. Will it proceed as per plan towards 0.8525 ?

Updates - Tuesday

EG

Price OD on Monday was at 0.87787 which is above 0.8775 (outside the OSUS zone) - thus momentum should have remain bullish towards 0.9250 (HQV), 0.8975 (SQV)

As the previous 2 weeks trend was bullish thus it would look the same for the 3rd and possibly last bullish trend unless they were a potential extended bull wave. (OC above any price zone )

Present sell entry that i`ve made yesterday was purely based on h4 timeframe which still not as a good as the daily timeframe itself.

I may or will cut my sell entry tomorrow - depends on the OD and the trend (which presently has break previous week high)


EJ

Price OW was at 122.624 which is still within the OSUS zone and no clear direction whether price bull or bear, thus i awaits a price move within the h4 timeframe, which it did yesterday afternoon below 122.25.

However, it is still remain unclear on the direction as todate both OD remain within the OSUS.

Let`s look on wednesday then..


UJ

Price OW was at 114.760 which is within the OSUS zone thus no clear direction. I opted for sell as the later part of the day h4 indicated, but again it`s not a great option since 2 days OD remain within the OSUS.

Is it pending for the coming JAPAN news soon?

GOLD

Price OW was at 1204.67 which is above the OSUS zone of 1202.50 thus signalling bullish momentum towards 1222.50 - 1225

The momentum remain as of today as the OD remain above 1202.50 despite a bearish momentum from the previous day high of 1211.

BE will be set once the price hit the 1st tp of 1207.50.

QTTW - Progressive Wave

Progresif Wave adalah fasa kedua dalam kitaran Quarters Theory Trend Wave,
Dalam pattern yang ideal, Progressive Wave dijangkakan sebagai pergerakan harga yang kuat dan signifikan berbanding wave yang lain.

Progresif Wave dianggap sebagai trend wave yang paling mudah untuk menjangkakan trade.

Progresif wave berupaya untuk menghasilkan harga yang signifikan dan boleh menyediakan peluang trading yang bagus. Namun Progresif Wave masih tidak boleh dikecualikan dari menghadapi kebarangkalian Trend Wave failure.

Cara untuk Progresif Wave untuk meneruskan adalah jika ianya berjaya memecah di atas high atau bawah low yang sebelumnya.

Jika Progresif Wave tidak berupaya untuk memperolehi confirmation , maka tandanya wave akan gagal and kemungkinan berlakunya RTW di arah yang berlawanan.

QTT - Reversal Trigger Wave

RTW1 adalah trend wave yang paling penting sebab setiap kitaran QT selalunya bermula dan berakhir dengan RTW.

Walaupun perkara ini tak semestinya berlaku selalu, adanya keadaan yang rumit apabila sequences of 3 atau lebih bullish dan bearish RTW yang bersambung bakal berlaku. Dalam QTT, keadaan ini menandakan situasi ketidaktentuan , trendless market.

Ini adalah keadaan waktu consolidation dan sideways di mana biasanya akan berlaku apabila berakhirnya "extended" kitaran trend wave.

Sequences 2 or lebih bullish dan bearish TRW yang bersambung sesama sendiri selalunya menjurus ke arah breakout yang akan cuba untuk sambung or reverse trend yang terdahulu.

RTW boleh membuka peluang untuk counter trend atau trend continuing selagi traders dapat mengenalpasti tanda awal perubahan atau permulaan trend.

Jika terlepas RTW, maka seharusnya biarkan dahulu sehingga adanya peluang seterusnya.

QTT Trend Wave - Trend Wave Failure

Kitaran wave QT boleh menjadi ideal (mengandungi perfect 3 trend wave pattern) extended (mengandungi lebih dari 3 trend wave) atau adakalanya, short (mengandungi kurang dari pattern idea of 3 trend wave)

Kitaran trend wave selalunya terhenti apabila adanya sesuatu event dipanggil Trend Wave failure (TWF).

Untuk memahami sebab TWF, kita harus faham definisi asas uptrend dan dowtrend.
Uptrend adalah sequence higher high, dan downtrend adalah sequence lower low.
Trend bullish gagal untuk diteruskan jika setiap high baru adalah rendah dari high sebelumnya.

TWF boleh dikenalpasti secara mudah selagi trader beri perhatian pada harga. Kitaran trend bullish akan diteruskan selagi trend baru adanya high baru yang lebih tinggi dari high sebelumnya. Kitaran trend bearish akan diteruskan selagi terbentuknya low baru yang lebih rendah dari harga sebelumnya.

.TWF berlaku samada apabila penerusan bullish trend yang gagal untuk create high baru daripada high yang sebelumnya dan juga apabila bearish trend yang gagal untuk create low baru daripada low yang sebelumnya.

Apabila terjadinya TWF, maka ini akan menyebabkan RTW berlaku.

Memahami TWF dan juga kesannya hingga berlakunya RTW boleh menjadi tool yang membantu dalam melihat berakhirnya trend terdahulu dan pada masa yang sama bersedia untuk permulaan kitaran trend yang baru.

EU - in depth

EU

Monthly
February
High : 1.08279
Low : 1.04930

March
High : 1.06983
Low : 1.04941

Trend : TBA - price yet to break february's low of 1.04930 dengan beza 10 pips sahaja. Price kena break 1.0475 untuk sambung long term downtrend


Weekly
Previous week
High : 1.06300
Low : 1.04941

This week
High : 1.06983
Low : 1.05243

Trend - bullish trend . price akan sambung bull jika break previous high of 1.06983 ke arah 1.0725.

Daily
Last Friday
High : 1.06983
Low : 1.05716

Monday
- price akan indicate momentum bull jika berjaya break previous high of 1.06983.
- closing jumaat di 1.06738 di bawah 1.0675.
- if price by 2pm berjaya break 1.0675 ke atas, maka potensi untuk bull trend adalah tinggi.

GJ - in depth

GJ

Monthly
February
High : 144.114
Low : 138.525

March (present)
High : 140.733
Low : 138.426

Trend : Bearish (targeted monthly low at 137.50)

Weekly
Previous week
High : 140.733
Low: 138.815

This week
High : 140.525
Low : 138.426

Trend : Bearish (targeted next week low at 138.25 - 137.75)

Daily
Last Friday
High :140.525
Low : 139.542

Monday
- as friday price closes at 139.607 which is below the OSUS of 139.75, thus monday price will look for bearish towards 139.25 (to break previous LL) as a mean to continue bearish momentum towards 137.75 - 137.50

QTT Trend Wave Study

QTT Trend Wave mengabungkan Elliot wave dan Dow Theory di mana ianya mendefinasikan 3 trend market dan membahagikan trend primary kepada 3 fasa.

3 fasa ini mengandungi trend wave 1, 2 dan 3 . Ianya hampir sama dengan impulse wave kitaran 1,3,5 yang terdapat dalam EW. Bagaimanapun QTT Trend Wave cycle mempunyai kitaran angka yang berbeza kerana dalam EW wave pembetulan (CW) 2 dan 4 hanya diberikan nama Correction dan bukannya 2 dan 4. 

Reversal Trigger Wave 1 (RTW1)

- menandakan permulaan kitaran trend baru.

- ianya dipanggil sedemikian kerana selalunya terjadi sebagai percubaan untuk reverse trend terdahulu.

- trend wave ini boleh terjadi bukan sahaja sebagai pattern trend correction, tetapi boleh juga sebagai permulaan fasa completion trend reversal, lebih-lebih lagi jika ianya diikuti dengan Progressive Wave 2 (PW2)

Progresif Wave 2 (PW2)

- trend wave yang memanjangkan trend ke arah depan lagi. 

Conclusive Wave 3 (CW3)

- dijangka untuk memberikan tanda fasa terakhir di dalam kitaran trend.

- - CW3 ini lebih pendek dari segi jarak berbanding trend wave lain dan pergerakan harga mungkin terbatas.

Di dalam kitaran trend bullish, setiap trend wave baru akan menghasilkan higher high daripada high trend terdahulu dan low setiap correction akan berada di atas daripada low trend terdahulu.

Di dalam kitaran trend bearish, setiap trend wave baru akan menghasilkan lower low daripada low trend terdahulu dan high setiap correction akan berada rendah daripada high trend terdahulu.

Updates

AU
- price remain as per my HQV towards the lower OSUS area.
- expiry period by end of Q1 or on May 2017

EU
- major trend remain bearish as below 1.0750
- will re-entry sell if the price reach between 1.0625 - 1.07225

EJ
- major trend remain bearish towards 117.50 since price OM below 122.50
- will re-entry sell later today. once price retest 122.50 level

GU
- major trend remain bearish towards 1.1750 since price has break 1.2225 key lvl

GJ
- major trend remain bearish towards 137.50 since price is below 142.50 key lvl.
- will re-entry sell later today either at 140.75 - 141.25

NU
- major trend remain bearish towards the targeted HQV level
- will re-entry once price reaches 0.6750

UCAD
- major trend is bullish towards 1.375.
- entry depends on where the OSUS would be

USCHF
- no definite trend as price still ranging within the HQV OSUS
- will only entry once a definite price break out occurs.

UJ
- major trend remain bullish towards 117.50 as the OM is above 112.50
- will re-entry buy once a clear indication above 115.25

GOLD
- major trend as of this moment is bearish towards 1175.00
- will reassess once the price reaches the targeted price.

QEP

I miss u so much
hehe

In depth Mac 2017

AU

Q1 - kekal di bawah 0.7725 - thus ke arah 0.7275
Monthly - di bawah 0.76544 (di luar HHZ)
Weekly - di atas 0.76782 (dalam HHZ)

Mengikut pada indikator di atas, major trend adalah bearish ke arah 0.7275 dengan decider di 0.7525 (samada break or reject)

Monthly bulan Mac lebih menjurus ke arah 0.7575 - 0.7525, manakala weekly pula mengandaikan kebarangkalian reversal ke arah 0.7700 - 0.7725 (retest) - Namun ini telahpun terjadi di awal minggu (isnin)

Rumusan
- major downtrend kekal IF price berjaya break 0.7525 - 0.7475 by today


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EU

Q1 - potential di bawah 1.0750 - menghala ke arah 1.0250
Monthly - 1.05758 - di atas 1.0575 (di luar LHZ)
Weekly - 1.05627 - di bawah 1.0575 ( di dalam LHZ)

Mengikut pada indikator di atas, major trend masih lagi menjurus ke arah bearish di 1.0250 namun kebarangkalian price untuk bullish masih lagi ada.

Kekuatan momemtum untuk mencapai 1.0250 (or parity level) kemungkinan hanya akan tercapai pada Q2 (bulan 5 max) jika price masih kekal di atas 1.05 bulan ni

Monthly indicate potential bullish semula ke arah 1.0625 - 1.0725 manakala weekly pula mengandaikan bearish ke arah 1.0475 - 1.0375.

Samada akan pullback or break ke bawah lagi akan dilihat by today.


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GJ

Q1 - potential bearish ke arah 137.50
Monthly - 139.588 (di bawah 139.75)
Weekly - 139.820 (di dalam OSUS 139.75 - 140.25)

Mengikut pada indikator di atas , major trend masih bearish ke arah 137.50 or 132.50 walaupun 137.50 telah tercapai pada bulan January itu sendiri. Namun reversal yang berlaku telah sentuh semula 142.50 but gagal break up.

Both monthly dan weekly indicate bearish ke arah 137.50 namun apa yang berlaku sekarang potentially bersifat sementara, unless price break out ke atas 140.75.

Friday 3/3

Permulaan bulan Mac bukanlah sesuatu yang "lancar" huhu.

Too many floating yang tidak sepatutnya namun jika berdasarkan pada apa yang telah dianalisakan , perkara ini akan berkurangan dan menuju ke jalan yang sepatutnya.

EU

UCAD

GJ

EJ

Tuesday

Harini market end month, majority yang ada akan make a move untuk setup potential direction untuk bulan Mac

Eu - masih lagi under bearish pressure
Ej - potential long term bearish

Au - dari segi HQV, long term bearish

Gu - masih lagi dalam zon ranging dan tak sesuai untuk entry
Gj - potential long term bearish
Gold - setakat ni masih lagi bullish walaupun ada sign rejection pagi tadi di area HP @1262.

Uj - ranging zone. esok baru tahu
Uschf - masih lagi under bias bullish
Ucad - masih lagi under bias bullish

Monday 27/2

Market opportunity yang jelas ada pagi tadi adalah

EJ dan juga AU @ 10am.

Trlepas setup huhu.

Gold jam 3pm setup sell tadi

ROI

ROI dari segi investment or bisnes model usually akan mengambil masa yang tertentu untuk terhasil.

Adakalanya di antara 6 bulan ke atas or 1 year plus.

Dari segi trading, ROI adalah terpulang kepada dari segi penjagaan money management dan jenis teknik trading yang digunakan.

Ada yang prefer 50-100% sebulan dan ada juga yang prefer 10-30%.

Di akhir hari, ianya terpulang pada individu itu sendiri.

EJ

EJ

Jika price berjaya break 119.75 - 119.50 pada hari isnin sebelum jam 2pm, momentum bakal meneruskan bearish ke arah 117.75.

Invalidation jika price break 120.25

Note
Jika Monthly berjaya close di bawah 117.50 - 117.25, long term bearish ke arah 112.25 by 1st half of the year.

Au

Au

Harga dalam keadaan menjunam ke arah 0.7525.
Invalidation jika price break 0.7775.

Friday

Kesilapan berlaku di hari ni atas sebab tertentu dan juga kesilapan sendiri.

Untuk pair Ucad dan Uschf, target awal adalah bearish since h4 2 dan 3 seiring OP but kegagalan berlaku atas faktor PE maka reversal berlaku.

Untuk UJ pula, sama juga atas sebab PE yang berlaku, dan juga atas sebab LQT yang menjurus ke arah 112.5 - 112.75.

Gj pula kesilapan sendiri dalam menuruti SOP sedia ada. By right boleh dielakkan, namun it has happened.

In sha allah, next week akan lebih brhati-hati dan focus dan berdisiplin.

AU buat masa sekarang - bearish ke arah 1) 0.7625 - 2) 0.7525. Invalidation jika price break in semula 0.7675.

UJ as of this time, menunggu cnfrmation buy.... 112.75 above ke arah 1) 113.25 2) 113.75 3) 114.75 

Gold

Based on OD price - setakat ni maintain TP.
Dari segi TP range hanyalah based pada KL yang seterusnya

Case study - EU

BRN - 1.0500

OD - above 75
OP 2nd H4 - below 75
OP 3rd H4 - above 75

Analysis
- price break 75 tetapi gagal cecah 50 dalam tempoh 8 jam pertama.
- price jam 2pm di atas 75
- ikut pada kebiasaan, price PE dan by right "bullish" ke arah 1.0600 ke atas
- namun price "refuse: dan bearish ke arah 1.0550.

Add
- momentum bear berlaku ketika period 2 hours scenario dengan jam 4 OP di bawah 75
- target adalah ke arah 1.0550 - 1.0525

Summary
- od bercanggah dengan 2nd h4, 2nd h4 bercanggah dengan 3rd h4
- price "respect" 2nd h4 level dan correlate dalam period 2 hour within 3rd h4?


ALTERNATIVE MODE

Correlate dengan UJ

BRN - 114.00

OD - below 25
OP 2nd H4 - above 25
OP 3rd H4 - above 25

Dari apa yang boleh dilihat - 2nd h4 menunjukkan 2 hala tuju yang berlainan "since" gerak mereka sememangnya dalam arah berlawanan.

Let us see esok

Gold OD

I would based entry of Gold solely on OD price factor according to key level senario.

1/2 OD - 1209.94 - target bullish (ranging but remain above KL)
2/2 OD - 1209.32 - target bullish (bullish towards 1225)
3/2 OD - 1214.88 - target bearish (though bear towards 1208 - price bull back towards 1221)
6/2 OD - 1219.65 - target bullish (bull toward 1235)
7/2 OD - 1234.44 - target bullish (ranging but remain above KL)
8/2 OD - 1233.71 - target bulish

3rd h4

This would be the right time for entry based on the key level, though it may not be feasible to most pair.

If based on 2nd h4, it still possible but thus far only Ucad adheres to this.

The rest remain as of 3rd h4

AU

AU - amnya price bullish ke arah 0.7750 apabila berjaya break in 0.7675. if open daily kekal di atas 0.7675, then bullish ke arah 0.7725 - 0.7750

NU

Nu - amnya price gagal breakout EOHZ dan remain in between 0.725 - 0.7325. hanya buy jika price break out dari 0.7325 ke arah 0.7375 - 0.7425. seandainya price break ke bawah 0.7300, maka bearish semula ke arah 0.7275 - 0.7250.


Recommendation - buy if break 07325, sell if break 0.7300

Usdchf - daily

Usdchf amnya dari segi H4 dah breakout kluar dr EOHZ. Potential sambung bearish ke arah 0.9875 - 0.9825 short term manakala long term potential ke arah 0.925 since gagal sustain above 1.0 - 1.0250.

Recommendation - sell ke arah 0.9875 - 0.9825  (jika open daily isnin kekal di bawah 0.9925) with sl di atas 1.000

Weekly Update

Gold

Daily akan mencari semula 1225.

Weekly pula potensi bearish ke arah 1200 jika break semula 1217.

Monthly pula ke arah 1250 jika berjaya break 1225 - 1232

Gj

Price daily berada di dalam zon Hz dan mungkin akan sambung bearish ke arah 139.25 jika berjaya break 140.

Dari segi weekly , masih lagi ada kemungkinan bull atau bear.

Ianya bergantung pada daily isnin ni

Monthly pula lebih ke arah bearish ke 137.50 semula

Gu

Price daily tampak bearish ke arah 1.24 dengan syarat break 2475 dahulu.

Price weekly potensi bearish ke arah 1.2375 - 1.2250 manakala monthly adalah ke arah 1.2750.

Uj

Price kekal di atas 112.50 walaupun dah beberapa kali cuba break ke bawah.

Dari segi daily, price "sangkut" di antara 112.50 - 112.75 dan hanya blh ditentukan pergerakan apabila melepasi harga di atas.

Dari segi weekly, price masih berpotensi ke arah 113.75 - 115 manakala dari segi monthly masih lagi berpotensi ke arah 117.50.

Eu

Minggu ni Eu kekal ranging di dalam HZ dan masih menunggu break out utk menentukan perjalanan seterusnya.

Dari segi daily, price berada di atas 0775 dan momentum bull ke arah 0825 pastinya menjadi tumpuan isnin (jika OD kekal spt sedia ada)

Dari segi monthly, momentum price adalah ke arah 1.1000 / 1.1250 jika price berjaya break out dari 1.0825.

Jika gagal, maka momentum bakal menjadi sebaliknya.

Notes;
Buy swing hanya if daily open di atas 1.0825

Monday update

EU

This morning, price opened above 1.0700 but fail to touch / break 1.0750 within the specific time thus PE occurs with PM follow up towards 1.0625.

However price fail to break the HP zone, thus reversal bullish towards 1.0750.

As at this time, price remain stuck in between 1.0675 - 1.0700.

If the price remain above 1.0700 by Tuesday morning, the price may opt for 1.0750 again.
If the price remain below 1.0700 by Tuesday morning, price may look to break out from 1.0675 again towards 1.0625.




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UJ

Price opened below 115 and targeted 113.75 which it manage to touch but yet to close above it thus if the price remain above 113.75-114.00 by Tuesday morning, the momentum remain bullish towards 115 - 117.50


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GJ

Price remain bearish from 145 towards 142.50. As of now, price has break 142.50 and potentially close below 142.25 - 142.50. If it does, then it will bearish towards targeted 137.50 - 140.00 price zone.


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GU

Price bearish since opened below previous break as of 1.2625 and heading towards 1.2500.
As of present, price has managed to break 1.2500 and should it close below 1.2475 - 1.2500, then momentum towards 1.2375 - 1.2250 is possible.

GJ

GJ at this time fail to break 145.00 to continue bullish momentum and may reversal back towards 142,50 - 140.00

If price monthly manage to close below 142.50, then i look for a long term bear towards 137.50 - 125.00

If it closes above 142.5 instead, then momentum resumed towards 150 with an extension towards 162.5 / 175

GU

Gu has moved nearly 300 pips weekly and 650 pips monthly, thus a reversal has occur.

It fail to break remain above 1.2625 despite manage to reach highest at 1.26734, but momentum fail when it closes below 1.2600 at 1.25894

My projection for GU now is bearish momentum towards 1.2500 - 1.2375 with an extension towards 1.175 (provided monthly close below 1.2500)

If price rejected 1.2500 - thus a potential rebound towards 1.2625 - 1.2750 as long as the price closes above 1.2650.

EU

Price fail to touch 1.0775 last week despite trying out once and nearly touch it with the highest at 1.07749.

As the price reversal from bullish towards bearish as it has break 1.0725 - 1.0675 with the week close below 1.0700, my target of sell (from 1.0725) is a long term trade towards 1.0000 (parity level) and the nearest at 1.0500.

So let us see on the next week price.

1) If the price bullish on the first half of the week and touch / break 1.0775 then potential towards 1.0825 provided IT TOUCHED and close above 1.0800. Otherwise trend may resume bearish towards 1,0750 - 1.0675

2) if the price bearish on the first half of the week and touch / break 1.0625 and closes below 1.0600, then momentum remain towards 1.0500.

3) if the price bearish on the first half of the week and touch / break 1.0625 but closes above 1.0600, momentum may range between 1.0600 and 1.0650 until a clear break out at 1.0675 (for bull) and 1.0575 (for bear) occurs.

Its been a while

i have not updated my blog for a long time. through out this time, i have been trying to simplify what i can do on my trading system.

the best and simple thing to do is, simple entry and let it be towards the TP goal.
but how do you let it go, knowingly that it will reach the target?

there is no exact 100%, as always about probability and possiblity.
but surely you need to have trust in your own system and not to have any doubts.

when we are free from the burden that we created, then everything would be as planned.